Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Phoenix Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffeare beginning, the Business Forecastingv Center at the said in its latesy California and Metro Forecast released The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percenft early next year, and will remain in double-digits until the end of 2011. The cented produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United California and ninemetro areas, from Sacramento to Fresnpo and the San Francisco Bay In the Sacramento unemployment will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percent next year, before dipping to 10.2 percent in 2011, the reporyt said.
Unemployment is expected to reac 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to reboundf in the third quarterf ofnext year, when job growth will improvre to 0.8 percent. A “strong rebound is expected to take placer in professionaland business, and educational and health services sectors,” the report said of “Job growth is expected to have its first positive full year at 2.0 perceny in 2011.” Sacramento’s real personal meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.
5 percent next San Jose and San Francisco will be the firstt metro areas in Northern California to return to theire pre-recession employment levels, in the second and third quarterw of 2012, respectively, the study Sacramento and Merced will be amontg the last north state metro areas to regain peak in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is last, with a returb expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Central Valley will be hard hit by the combinatio of recent state tax increasesd and massive expectedbudget cuts, the Business Forecasting Centet said.
“The state budgetf crisis is a dangerous aftershock to a regiobn still reeling from the foreclosure earthquake,” Jeff Michael, director of the Businessx Forecasting Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disaster area, but most of its “economic shocks are cyclicapl in nature rather than permanent changes such as closed militart bases,” the news release said. • Construction continuex to lead job lossed inpercentage terms, declining anotherr 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. Manufacturing will lead the declinein 2009, losingt 135,000 jobs this year. Retail sales will not return to theidr 2007 leveluntil 2011.
• New car and trucl sales will fallbelow 1.06 million in 2009, aftetr exceeding 2 million for most of the Sales will gradually increase as the economy reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 milliobn in 2011. • Housingb starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,000 more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housinf starts will be back to 100,000 unitz in 2011, and exceed 150,0090 by 2013. • Health care is the only secto that will not shrinkthis year. The gain of 13,000 health care or 0.9 percent, is the slowest growth this • Personal income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfarnm payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewide during the two-year • The California economy will finally hit bottom in the fourtu quarter of this year, and will begin a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 beforr many key economic indicators such as unemployment returm tohealthy levels. • The state’w recession should end in the last quarter of this but the job markey will remain weak through most ofnext