Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Tampa Bay Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professord at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemployment increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirc quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical whichincludes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projectedf to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thirs quarter. That would drop employment to downfrom 380,400 in the first quartere of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Daytomn area has long relied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment willfall substantially,” Traynor said.
Forecasts from the repory show employment in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quartert of this year to 36,100 by the thircd quarter, a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitinh to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expecteddto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the third down from 40,000 in the firsf quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includes financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,20 0 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firsg quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline.
“Th next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantg time forthe region,” Traynorf said. Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonao employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsty quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periods last year. One area of employment that isn’yt expected to be hit hard is health In fact, Traynor said he expectsa health care to add some jobs by the third going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of declinee in gross domestic product will but remain negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quarterr ofthis year.
Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employmen to pick up becauswe it is a lagging indicator ofeconomid recovery. Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertaintyh still on thenational level, as businesses try to determind the impact of governmeng actions. Traynor said the proble of high unemployment is not going awayanytime “This is something we’re going to be livinvg with for quite a while, well into next he said.